Solar Citizens calls for greater ambition by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) to keep Australia’s emission reductions in line with 1.5 degrees of global warming, by doubling down on rooftop solar backed by storage - the proven everyday hero of the energy transition.
The Draft Integrated System Plan (ISP) report forecasts a 20% increase in rooftop solar capacity by 2050, compared to 2024 predictions on their ‘Step Change Scenario’. However, Solar Citizens urges the federal government to implement policies that enable the more ambitious ‘Accelerated Transition Scenario’ as this will secure a safe climate while maximising energy bill reductions. [1]
Solar Citizens CEO Heidi Lee Douglas said:
“This latest forecast shines a light on Australia’s world-leading rooftop solar uptake and recognises the huge uptake of home batteries since 1 July.
"It shows that with the right policies, we can raise the roof on our ambition for rooftop solar backed by storage. Whilst the Accelerated Transition Scenario is ambitious, it’s also achievable.
“The fairest way to accelerate uptake of rooftop solar and share the benefits is to implement policies that will unlock the 17 GW of untapped rooftop solar potential on rental homes, apartments, and social housing.
“We need to follow the lead of European countries [2] and implement policies to unlock the 23 GW unrealised rooftop solar potential on commercial and industrial buildings, in a way that businesses can share that excess clean energy with neighbouring homes and apartments.
“Rooftop solar is the cheapest form of electricity in human history, and it’s households investing in solar panels and batteries, and benefitting from energy cost savings, that is a major driver of Australia’s unexpected economic growth in the last quarter. [3]
New analysis by the Australian Bureau of Statistics found that
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Households paid $18 billion (78%) of the $23 billion spent on rooftop solar, with $5 billion in government subsidies
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Rooftop solar installation costs fell 75% (per kilowatt of installed capacity) in the last 15 years, driven by better technology and large-scale production.
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Retail electricity prices doubled since 2009
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Solar home owners saved $3 billion in electricity costs in the last financial year [4]
“Unlocking solar for renters and for big roofs is the fairest way to bring down energy bills for all households, reduce emissions further and is in line with keeping global temperatures below 1.5 degrees.” [1]
“To maintain these clear benefits to households and the economy, Solar Citizens urges the Federal Government to extend the Small Scale Renewable Energy Scheme (including the Cheaper Home Battery rebate) past its planned 2030 end date to 2040,” said Ms Douglas
Innovation to reach 100% renewable energy
The draft ISP also highlights the importance of innovations and reforms within the distribution network to further leverage Consumer Energy Resources (CER), including “urban renewable energy zones”, as well as pricing and incentives for solar soaking and peak reduction such as the proposed “Solar Sharer” offer scheme.
Interestingly, the ISP highlights that the National Energy Market's (NEM) networks and operations are hard at work ensuring system security is ready for 100% renewable energy penetration.
The ISP also emphasises that “a least-cost transition for the NEM depends in part on the effective integration of consumer and distributed energy resources.”
“AEMO recognises that Australian consumers are the heroes of our energy transition setting a world-leading pace in our adoption of rooftop solar and now adding batteries and eclectric vehicles,” said Ms Douglas.
Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) and Vehicle to Grid need more attention
However, AEMO flags that consumer confidence in VPPs is lacking and that to reach higher levels of coordination, consumer protections must be put in place, and VPP providers must offer clear and explicit benefits to battery owners.
“The uptake of VPPs would increase if home battery owners were confident about consumer protections and standards for control and share of revenue,” said Ms Douglas.
To instill consumer confidence in VPPs Solar Citizens calls on the Federal Government to introduce national minimum consumer protections including:
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Flexible trading relationships for small consumers
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Mandatory disclosure of profit split (provider and customer)
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Minimum profit split of 50% or higher for customers
The ISP predicts that by 2050, up to 80% of all vehicles are expected to be battery or plug-in electric vehicles (EVs), with 11% participating in vehicle-to-grid (V2G) programs to provide an additional 9 GW of CER storage.
“To reach the ambitious target of 9 GW storage capacity for EVs to be ‘batteries on wheels’ by 2050, we need more trials like the ARENA/Amber Electric V2G program. Bidirectional chargers, which cost $6,000 to $10,000, should be subsidised by an extension of the Cheaper Home Batteries program,” said Ms Douglas.
NOTES
[1] The ISP is based on the ‘Step Change Scenario’, which forecasts 46 GW of rooftop solar capacity by 2050 - however this scenario is aligned to stay below 2 degrees of global warming. The more ambitious, ‘Accelerated Transition Scenario’ is aligned to 1.5 degrees warming and forecasts 50 GW of rooftop solar capacity by 2035 (nationally). See 2025 Inputs, Scenarios & Assumptions Report, AEMO August 2025 Solar Citizens advocates for policies to double rooftop solar capacity from 27 GW to 54 GW by 2035.
[2] EU Solar Energy Strategy, European Parliament, 20/11/25
[3] There are two big drivers of Australia’s economic growth… Greg Jericho, the Guardian 4/12/25
[4] Household Solar Electricity Generation in the National Accounts, Australian Bureau of Statistics 3/12/25